NorthJersey.com
June 3, 2009
CHARLES STILE

Ridgewood's Barbra Lewis would never vote for ultraconservative Steve Lonegan, even if he was "running for dogcatcher."

But Lewis, a charter member of the Tom Kean/Christie Whitman moderate wing of the New Jersey Republican party, was underwhelmed by Christopher J. Christie, the former United States attorney for New Jersey, who defeated Lonegan, the former Bogota mayor, in Tuesday's GOP primary for governor.

"He's mouthing a lot of conservative words these days, but I don't know if he believes them or not," said Lewis, a retired bookkeeper and secretary.

Lewis' ambivalence distills the challenge Christie faces as he charges into the general election against Governor Corzine, the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent since Gov. Jim Florio was routed in 1993 by the residual anger of a tax revolt.

Lonegan's relentless goading forced Christie to veer to the right from his planned cruise down the center lane of New Jersey's suburban-rural Republican Party. The Mendham resident began portraying himself as an ideal Republican for the Age of Obama, tough, pragmatic, and eager to dispense with the "divisive politics of the past." But by the close of the contest, a Christie television ad ended with this tag line: "Christie: Conservative Leadership."

Now the question remains: Did Christie's preening of his conservative bona fides replenish the Corzine attack dossier with damaging new material? Is Christie in danger this November of losing independents, disillusioned Democrats or even the moderates, like Lewis?

Democrats, at least in private, are heartened by Christie's conservative makeover. Corzine's well-paid handlers now have footage of Christie currying favor with conservative talk show host Sean Hannity and praising Bobby Jindal, the neo-conservative Louisiana governor who delivered the roundly panned, government-is-the-problem response to Obama's speech to Congress in February. Christie adopted an even more conservative position on taxpayer-financed school vouchers than Lonegan.

"It may be helpful in a primary," says W. Michael Murphy, a Democratic lobbyist and former candidate for governor, referring to Christie's tacking to the right during the primary, "but it's a mantle that doesn't wear well in November."

Most observers expect the Democrats to recast Christie as a top contributor and enabler of former President George W. Bush.

Democrats — on the campaign trail and in Congress — will also portray Christie's awarding of lucrative, no-bid contracts to monitor settlements in federal fraud cases as a pay-to-play reward to allies. Democratic campaign groups provided a preview by running radio, television and Internet ads during the primary.

And while Christie takes center-right posture on sensitive social issues, such as abortion, gun owners' rights and same-sex marriage, Democrats still say his positions leave him vulnerable to a recasting as a stealth right-winger — a formula Democrats have deployed with success for the past two decades.

But some campaign veterans doubt the new catalog of conservative details from the primary will matter that much to voters frantic about losing their jobs and homes in a recession-weary economy. It was worth noting that the hot-button social issues like abortion, gun owners' rights and same-sex marriage, did not dominate the GOP primary, as they have in the past.

Other conservative positions Christie embraced during the primary may not have the same firepower within the Democratic-leaning electorate that they once did. School vouchers, once championed by conservative ideologues, are being embraced by urban Democrats. Christie did call for "gutting" the state's affordable housing law, but suburban homeowners of all political stripes have been ambivalent about the program.

Another factor that might soften the collateral damage to Christie is Corzine himself. The governor begins the race with low approval ratings, low reelection indicators, and behind Christie in a head-to-head contest. The Christie-as-conservative strategy might have more potency if Corzine was more popular, says Jennifer Duffy, a political analyst for the Washington-based Cook Political Report, but polls show that Corzine suffers from his credibility problem with voters.

"He [Corzine] is probably going to have to make a credible case against Christie," Duffy said. "Voters are already wary of what he says."

But Christie's pledge to cut income taxes — while maintaining property tax rebates that are paid from income taxes — may be a bigger challenge for Christie. He has refused to provide specifics to explain how he would do that. That strategy sustained Christie in the primary, but it's a bigger gamble in the fall, especially if voters accept Corzine's decision to cut rebates during the economic crisis.

"Chris Christie can hope that voters will tolerate a lack of specifics … because they will look at Corzine and say he doesn't care at all about the issue because he didn't even attempt to fulfill campaign promises," said Gregg Edwards, president of the Center For Policy Research of New Jersey, a conservative think tank.

Edwards acknowledges that a platform thick with theme, but thin on specifics will be a tough sell. He expects property tax relief will emerge as a top issue, as it has in most races for governor.

Christie will feel the pressure to provide a persuasive plan to voters like Barbra Lewis, who says "Corzine has been dealt a terrible hand" and may even be persuaded to vote for him.

"He [Christie] started to promise things that I don't think he can do," she said. But on Tuesday, she gave him the benefit of the doubt.

"I think he was more believable [than Lonegan] even though he hasn't said anything," Lewis said.

E-mail: stile@northjersey.com